Free market capitalism is not dead. The conservative movement is not dead, but the Republican Party is on its knees, or will be shortly.
It is has become so excruciatingly embarrassing to be a Republican. David Brookes of the NYTs described Sarah Palin as a “cancer” on the Party. Christopher Buckley has abandoned the Party for which his father provided the intellectual foundation stone. Republican is now synonymous with ignorance, bigotry and incompetence.
There is no other conservative party in a modern democracy that would put up Sarah Palin as a VP candidate. Culturally conservative countries like Catholic Spain allow gay marriage. Until the Republicans grow up, they deserve to be kept out of power.
The inmates have taken over the asylum and ugliness is rampant in contemporary Republicanism. It may take at least two election defeats, as it did with the British Conservative Party, before conservative leaders come to their senses—there is no future in the 17th century.
The Good
Obama has a first rate, centrist economic team. If this team (and a desire to win a second term, unlike Carter) can keep the loony left in Congress at bay, there is hope that we can pull out of the current recession riding a wave of hope and public infrastructure spending. If, and it is a big if, Obama sticks to his tax program, he will do no harm to the economy, provided that in revising corporate tax policy, he doesn’t close too many of those loop holes, remembering that if he closes them all, the US would have the highest business taxes of all the advanced democracies. We have to hope that he is smart enough not to kill the goose that lays the golden egg.
We do need (private) affordable universal healthcare. It should be a right in a modern democracy. It is the morally appropriate thing to do and a well thought out move towards this goal should mitigate some of the fear of job loss and change, ultimately lessening fear of the global free market.
Obama’s Nixon goes to China moment may be in tackling the issue of performance pay in education. Although sadly opposed to parent choice and charter schools, he has made positive sounding noises on performance pay. The teaching profession needs to be radically reformed and Obama would have the political amity to make these changes, if he is brave enough to seize the moment.
Above all, Obama will transform the world’s perception of the US and if he exploits overflowing goodwill in the early years of his administration, who knows what he will accomplish in the Mid-East, with Russia and against international terrorism. The international euphoria (and it will be euphoria) may even partly help drag us out of a global recession—there is that level of irrational exuberance around his upcoming presidency.
The Bad
Of course, it could all go horribly wrong. Obama won’t be the first left leaning politician in history to realize (if he doesn’t already) that one thousand promises made on the campaign trail will cost one thousand times more to implement than is raised through tax increases on “the wealthiest Americans”. Add to that the existing deficit and the final cost of the bailout and technically, Obama will have no room for maneuver whatsoever.
The bad scenario sees Obama moving too quickly on too many fronts, spending too much money and crippling the economy with a wider range of tax increases than he will currently admit to. That is what has happened under Labour Party leadership in the UK, and that is why Prime Minister Brown, having taxed the life out of the economy, is destined to lose the next election in a landslide.
The Ugly
Two names that should strike fear into the hearts of any independent—Pelosi and Reed. Two of the most monumentally incompetent politicians to have ever been elected in the history of democracy. With approval ratings substantially below those even of Bush, these two are determined to salvage their reputations and left wing bona fides, having completely failed to close down the Iraq war as promised.
At least 80% of the risk associated with an Obama presidency is the certain pressure he is likely to come under from these two clowns and their fellow travelers on the Democratic wing of the Democratic party. There will be huge pressure on Obama to redress the income inequality gap that has grown in the Bush years. Additional income redistribution(the top 1% of earners already pay more than 33% of all taxes, where the bottom 50% of earners pays just 3.6%) , strengthened unions, trade barriers and protectionism are all strong possibilities.
This is an intoxicating cocktail for the left and a surefire way to bring a recession burdened economy to its depressive knees. As the commentariat gleefully surveys what they hope are the death throes of global capitalism, many believe that this is their best chance of implementing Euro-style social welfarism since the great depression.
The ugly scenario is ten years of economic stagnation as radical liberals, unchecked by an adoring media, regulate everything that moves, tax everything that’s earnt, and pour our dollars into anything that bleats, with no regard to outcome.
And In The Final Reckoning
To a certain degree, an Obama win is a good thing on two fronts for centrist Republicans. The natural centre right leaning of the American electorate and the constant pressure from conservative think tanks, cable news and talk radio has steered team Obama to articulate a reasonably centrist approach. So the question becomes, once in power, does Obama stick to his word and keep the American people with him, or does he do a Clinton and govern from the left in year one and two, conceding the House of Representatives back to the Republicans in the first mid-term of his presidency?
If Obama sticks to the centre, we are happy. If Obama capitulates to the radical left in his own party, the Republicans will be back on the Hill within two years, hopefully chastened somewhat, and we will have what seems to have worked best for America in the past—a centre left President, held in check by a Republican party better at managing the opposition then managing themselves.
Sunday, October 12, 2008
Thursday, September 25, 2008
Natural Born Hippy
Check this out http://jeremyrix.blogspot.com/ (no relation, honest). It's enough to turn a gnarled old conservative...... well I almost wish I was as rabidly left as this bloke. He may be a hippy, but he is a happy hippy and if your life or business is f**ked up, you should sit down with this guy and he will sort you out. And, unlike all the therapy I've been through, you'll leave with a graphic roadmap to your own personal authenticity. I feel good looking at the work he has done for other people--imagine how good you'd feel if you had one of your own! You can do worse in life than put your future in the hands of a happy hippy! Very cool..... for a lefty!
Tuesday, September 23, 2008
An American Tragedy
It is an American tragedy that no matter who wins in November, nothing real will change. Barack Obama is not qualified to be President. John McCain, in a fit of pandering to the lowest instincts of the fundamentalist wing of the Republican party, picked a running mate who is equally unqualified. Both candidates have jettisoned their supposed maverick, outsider status and jumped head-first into the cesspit of Presidential politics.
To be fair, neither man could escape the five forces that shape the political landscape in America.
1. Money Talks; Principle Walks—Both men’s campaign teams are loaded with lobbyists, seemingly with every major player in each team connected with some ugly episode in recent American history. Even if Obama and McCain were the two most principled men in the world—and the current state of the race skewers that laughable notion, the billions of dollars involved for either party to secure the White House and Congress absolutely guarantees that the last voice heard in the first days of the next Presidency will be that of the American people.
2. Extreme is the New Normal—Closed primaries (nearly half of all states still run closed or semi-closed primaries) reward the party faithful with the choice of candidate for a given race. The men and women moved to vote in these primaries are usually more doctrinaire and extreme than the population as a whole. As a candidate it pays to be prejudiced, partisan and unflinchingly dogmatic if you want to be successful at this first stage gate of the electoral process.
3. The Superfluous Voter—Once selected in a primary, gerrymandering on an unprecedented scale means that only 13% of Congressional Districts are seriously in play during any given election. An astonishing 87% of the House of Representatives need have no fear of the electorate at large. As long as they do their part for the local party machine and hold true to party orthodoxy, they will be returned to Congress again and again and again.
4. The New Propagandalism—If you can’t beat ‘em, join ‘em. In the news business, the lesson of the last several years is partisanship pays! Talk radio and Fox News proved that the American people apparently can’t get enough of other people who think just like them—especially, if they shout a lot!
MSNBC, CNN, the New York Times, and NPR have all decided to give their viewers, readers and listeners what they want—lashings of liberal orthodoxy with a sprinkling of conservative commentary to remind their audiences who to hate. (Network television news has decided to ignore its demographic and give its audience the liberal line, whether they like it or not!). This may be financially astute and truer to the underlying beliefs of the journalists involved, but it is somewhere between pointless and destructive for American democracy.
Liberals are overjoyed at the success of Maddow and (until recently) Olbermann, but what’s the point? Will either of them change one vote? If you are a liberal, ask yourself this question, “would you become a conservative because of anything Bill O’Reilly said”? No? Well, surprise! It works both ways.
This echo chamber of self-defeating nonsense that rewards the loudest, most stupidly partisan hate speech is destroying our democracy. (Bernhard’s recent gang rape joke at the expense of Sarah Palin, which incidentally said more about Ms Bernhard’s attitude to African American men, than it does about the Republican VP candidate, is an increasingly typical example of modern political discourse—see HuffPo, Kos, Hannity, et al.). Ignorant people shouting at each other will not move the country forward….. in any direction.
How about some facts? Some comparative analysis? A hint of objectivity? How about getting creative in explaining challenging concepts in compelling ways? How about holding politicians accountable for their actions, no matter their political affiliation?
One third of Cook County (covering Obama’s home town of Chicago) healthcare centers have closed in the last year due to corruption, cronyism and incompetence. Presumably, poor people have died or at least suffered because of this. Does it matter that the hopelessly inept President of Cook County is a Democrat? Apparently, it does to most journalists in Illinois who assiduously avoid all mention of this and may other corruption issues facing the state. The press sins of commission (outright bias and misreporting) and omission (keeping stories that harm favored candidates out of the press) is a kind of Miracle Grow for appalling governance.
5. Any low you can reach, I can go lower—Whether it is our political discourse, television, education, manners—you name it—we are in a committed race to the bottom. The tragedy of democracy is the triumph of idiocy over civilization. Where a stupid thing and the right thing come into conflict; too many times the stupid thing wins out.
There are a lot of stupid people out there and increasingly, leaders are not willing to tell us what we NEED to hear, rather than what we WANT to hear. (Note to Democrats: just telling people they are stupid, is stupid! You need to be more constructive in your observations. And, of course, real leaders, Al Gore, walk the talk and inspire people through their example too—do as I say, not as I do is a recipe for cynicism and failure, as you are finding out).
These five challenges underpin all the other problems that American faces. Bi-partisan solutions to climate change, comprehensive healthcare reform, social security and all the other challenges we face are out there. Except that in our system, no one, apparently, is rewarded for sticking their neck out and trying something new.
No matter who runs his hand across the desk in the Oval Office for the first time next January, THEY won’t have the power or the stamina to change any of this. No Congressperson is going to vote away their safe seat. No Managing Editor is going to watch her audience evaporate as she experiments with real news for articulate people. No money man is going to shrug his shoulders and write-off his million-dollar check for nothing. No politician is going to antagonize a local party elder who can sink her with the base of her own party.
How this tragedy plays out depends on the AMERICAN PEOPLE, as always. There are answers to these five challenges. We can cut money out of the election process; institute an independent electoral commission to define Congressional Districts; hold open primaries; implement a modern version of the Fairness Doctrine; and, find ways to reward civic virtue and thinking of the good of the many, rather than the comfort of the one.
The important point, however, is that this election is not that time, unfortunately. Only a third party candidate, backed by a boiling mad bi-partisan electoral coalition will have the power to do this. Our audacity in hoping that this time would be different has been drowned in the mud-wrestling pit where the 2008 Presidential election is being played out.
To be fair, neither man could escape the five forces that shape the political landscape in America.
1. Money Talks; Principle Walks—Both men’s campaign teams are loaded with lobbyists, seemingly with every major player in each team connected with some ugly episode in recent American history. Even if Obama and McCain were the two most principled men in the world—and the current state of the race skewers that laughable notion, the billions of dollars involved for either party to secure the White House and Congress absolutely guarantees that the last voice heard in the first days of the next Presidency will be that of the American people.
2. Extreme is the New Normal—Closed primaries (nearly half of all states still run closed or semi-closed primaries) reward the party faithful with the choice of candidate for a given race. The men and women moved to vote in these primaries are usually more doctrinaire and extreme than the population as a whole. As a candidate it pays to be prejudiced, partisan and unflinchingly dogmatic if you want to be successful at this first stage gate of the electoral process.
3. The Superfluous Voter—Once selected in a primary, gerrymandering on an unprecedented scale means that only 13% of Congressional Districts are seriously in play during any given election. An astonishing 87% of the House of Representatives need have no fear of the electorate at large. As long as they do their part for the local party machine and hold true to party orthodoxy, they will be returned to Congress again and again and again.
4. The New Propagandalism—If you can’t beat ‘em, join ‘em. In the news business, the lesson of the last several years is partisanship pays! Talk radio and Fox News proved that the American people apparently can’t get enough of other people who think just like them—especially, if they shout a lot!
MSNBC, CNN, the New York Times, and NPR have all decided to give their viewers, readers and listeners what they want—lashings of liberal orthodoxy with a sprinkling of conservative commentary to remind their audiences who to hate. (Network television news has decided to ignore its demographic and give its audience the liberal line, whether they like it or not!). This may be financially astute and truer to the underlying beliefs of the journalists involved, but it is somewhere between pointless and destructive for American democracy.
Liberals are overjoyed at the success of Maddow and (until recently) Olbermann, but what’s the point? Will either of them change one vote? If you are a liberal, ask yourself this question, “would you become a conservative because of anything Bill O’Reilly said”? No? Well, surprise! It works both ways.
This echo chamber of self-defeating nonsense that rewards the loudest, most stupidly partisan hate speech is destroying our democracy. (Bernhard’s recent gang rape joke at the expense of Sarah Palin, which incidentally said more about Ms Bernhard’s attitude to African American men, than it does about the Republican VP candidate, is an increasingly typical example of modern political discourse—see HuffPo, Kos, Hannity, et al.). Ignorant people shouting at each other will not move the country forward….. in any direction.
How about some facts? Some comparative analysis? A hint of objectivity? How about getting creative in explaining challenging concepts in compelling ways? How about holding politicians accountable for their actions, no matter their political affiliation?
One third of Cook County (covering Obama’s home town of Chicago) healthcare centers have closed in the last year due to corruption, cronyism and incompetence. Presumably, poor people have died or at least suffered because of this. Does it matter that the hopelessly inept President of Cook County is a Democrat? Apparently, it does to most journalists in Illinois who assiduously avoid all mention of this and may other corruption issues facing the state. The press sins of commission (outright bias and misreporting) and omission (keeping stories that harm favored candidates out of the press) is a kind of Miracle Grow for appalling governance.
5. Any low you can reach, I can go lower—Whether it is our political discourse, television, education, manners—you name it—we are in a committed race to the bottom. The tragedy of democracy is the triumph of idiocy over civilization. Where a stupid thing and the right thing come into conflict; too many times the stupid thing wins out.
There are a lot of stupid people out there and increasingly, leaders are not willing to tell us what we NEED to hear, rather than what we WANT to hear. (Note to Democrats: just telling people they are stupid, is stupid! You need to be more constructive in your observations. And, of course, real leaders, Al Gore, walk the talk and inspire people through their example too—do as I say, not as I do is a recipe for cynicism and failure, as you are finding out).
These five challenges underpin all the other problems that American faces. Bi-partisan solutions to climate change, comprehensive healthcare reform, social security and all the other challenges we face are out there. Except that in our system, no one, apparently, is rewarded for sticking their neck out and trying something new.
No matter who runs his hand across the desk in the Oval Office for the first time next January, THEY won’t have the power or the stamina to change any of this. No Congressperson is going to vote away their safe seat. No Managing Editor is going to watch her audience evaporate as she experiments with real news for articulate people. No money man is going to shrug his shoulders and write-off his million-dollar check for nothing. No politician is going to antagonize a local party elder who can sink her with the base of her own party.
How this tragedy plays out depends on the AMERICAN PEOPLE, as always. There are answers to these five challenges. We can cut money out of the election process; institute an independent electoral commission to define Congressional Districts; hold open primaries; implement a modern version of the Fairness Doctrine; and, find ways to reward civic virtue and thinking of the good of the many, rather than the comfort of the one.
The important point, however, is that this election is not that time, unfortunately. Only a third party candidate, backed by a boiling mad bi-partisan electoral coalition will have the power to do this. Our audacity in hoping that this time would be different has been drowned in the mud-wrestling pit where the 2008 Presidential election is being played out.
Tuesday, August 26, 2008
You are a bitter, mean, ignorant racist… Please vote for me!
Mr and Mrs Obama: you are not like us! We are not like you. We don’t recognize the America you live in. It’s not because you are black and we are white. It’s because we see an imperfect America trying to do the right thing; you see a devil colossus rampaging against its own people and the rest of the world.
Most Americans would (rightly) rather be the poorest person in America than the richest person in most other countries around the world. We know our country isn’t flawless, but it’s sure as hell easier and better living here than many other places we could mention.
America fits its people like a glove. You can live the life you want to live in America—independent and proud in the South West or nannied (and taxed till you bleed) in California. Everyone can find a piece of America that works for them.
If you live in Denmark, France or Germany, there are no choices. There is the over-arching state involved in every aspect of your life, and the government has a permanent hand in your pocketbook. If you want to live free of the choking French government and social system, you leave the country, as millions of young French people are doing. We have everything we want—all of us—right here. You sometimes have to move State—big deal!
That doesn’t mean we don’t want better, more available and cheaper healthcare options. We’d like schools that actually teach our kids something useful and if we are going to pay into social security all our lives, we’d like to see something in return.
Heck there are a lot of things about our country we’d like to fix. But unlike you, Michelle and Barack, we don’t want to turn our country into Sweden….. or Venezuela!
Most of all, we don’t take kindly to be slapped (repeatedly) by the folks asking for our vote. You absolutely will not win the white working class vote by insulting them—you are a bitter, mean, ignorant racist—please vote for me! It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to predict that that strategy ain’t gonna fly come November!
We do want change and this country does need fixing, but we don’t need to (metaphorically) blow it up and start again. We like it (mostly) the way it is.
We live in the real world—on farms, working in businesses, teaching, policing, and looking after families. We make real decisions, based on real pay checks, paying real (high) prices for the things we need against a backdrop of a dangerous and complicated world.
The Obamas are not like us. What is a $300,000+ per year “Outreach” worker, Michelle? Why are you friends with someone who planted a bomb and tried to kill Americans, Barack? What is a “Community Organizer” and how does it prepare you for the Presidency, Senator?
No, the Obamas are not like us and we know it to our core. There’s no dressing that up in conference tinsel. We see through the glitter: an inexperienced young man, with no track record of ever doing the things he claims he will do for us. Past behavior is the best predictor of future intent and there is nothing in Senator Obama’s past that gets us comfortable with him being President.
The Democrats put up another northern liberal for the Republicans to knock down, and compound this failing by choosing the most left wing and least experienced candidate since Jimmy Carter. We see it as clear as day. Barack Obama will lose in November. Who are the ignorant ones in this equation?
Most Americans would (rightly) rather be the poorest person in America than the richest person in most other countries around the world. We know our country isn’t flawless, but it’s sure as hell easier and better living here than many other places we could mention.
America fits its people like a glove. You can live the life you want to live in America—independent and proud in the South West or nannied (and taxed till you bleed) in California. Everyone can find a piece of America that works for them.
If you live in Denmark, France or Germany, there are no choices. There is the over-arching state involved in every aspect of your life, and the government has a permanent hand in your pocketbook. If you want to live free of the choking French government and social system, you leave the country, as millions of young French people are doing. We have everything we want—all of us—right here. You sometimes have to move State—big deal!
That doesn’t mean we don’t want better, more available and cheaper healthcare options. We’d like schools that actually teach our kids something useful and if we are going to pay into social security all our lives, we’d like to see something in return.
Heck there are a lot of things about our country we’d like to fix. But unlike you, Michelle and Barack, we don’t want to turn our country into Sweden….. or Venezuela!
Most of all, we don’t take kindly to be slapped (repeatedly) by the folks asking for our vote. You absolutely will not win the white working class vote by insulting them—you are a bitter, mean, ignorant racist—please vote for me! It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to predict that that strategy ain’t gonna fly come November!
We do want change and this country does need fixing, but we don’t need to (metaphorically) blow it up and start again. We like it (mostly) the way it is.
We live in the real world—on farms, working in businesses, teaching, policing, and looking after families. We make real decisions, based on real pay checks, paying real (high) prices for the things we need against a backdrop of a dangerous and complicated world.
The Obamas are not like us. What is a $300,000+ per year “Outreach” worker, Michelle? Why are you friends with someone who planted a bomb and tried to kill Americans, Barack? What is a “Community Organizer” and how does it prepare you for the Presidency, Senator?
No, the Obamas are not like us and we know it to our core. There’s no dressing that up in conference tinsel. We see through the glitter: an inexperienced young man, with no track record of ever doing the things he claims he will do for us. Past behavior is the best predictor of future intent and there is nothing in Senator Obama’s past that gets us comfortable with him being President.
The Democrats put up another northern liberal for the Republicans to knock down, and compound this failing by choosing the most left wing and least experienced candidate since Jimmy Carter. We see it as clear as day. Barack Obama will lose in November. Who are the ignorant ones in this equation?
Sunday, August 10, 2008
Obama, The Runner-up!
Many pundits claim Obama will do better in the polls when the electorate gets to know him – they couldn’t be more wrong. There are ten reasons why Obama will lose the election in November, probably in a close race, but not inconceivably, in a rout:
1. Obama, The Liberal
Quite simply, he is by instinct, the most left-wing candidate for President since Carter and America is a centre-right nation.
Rahm Emanuel understood to that to pull off the rout of the Republicans in 2006, he would have to field a team of conservative Democrats in the South: ex-Republicans, pro-gun, pro-life, military service, etc. That is why the Democrats came out on top last time. Whatever the rights and wrongs of it, American is not yet ready for a committed liberal from the “Democratic wing of the Democratic Party”.
2. Obama, The Inexperienced
He has zero national security and foreign policy experience in a time when a sure hand is required on both fronts.
He has never run or managed anything: a corporation; a non-profit; an NGO; or, a state. In 12 years as a professor at one of the most prestigious schools in the world (University of Chicago), he didn’t publish a single academic article or book.
He voted “present” 130 times in the Illinois State Senate, has virtually no meaningful legislation to his name and has shown no sign of bi-partisan commitment to getting the job done.
Obama’s resume paints a picture of man who shows up and moves on, but builds nothing, creates nothing, leads nothing and most importantly, leaves nothing of value behind.
3. Obama, The Arrogant
The more we learn about him, the clearer it is that despite his thin resume, he has a pretty high opinion of himself and a pretty low opinion of the rest of us.
4. Obama, The Unpatriotic
It is easy to paint him as unpatriotic through his own actions and those of his friends and associates (lapel pin, hand (not) on heart, Wright, Aires, Michelle!!!) which is an anathema to the American heartland.
5. Obama, The Economy Slayer
His economic policies (though more centrist now) will likely raise prices for all Americans (corporations don’t pay taxes they pass them on to consumers in the form of higher prices) and many Americans are aware of the risk of raising taxes in difficult economic times.
Obama’s friends in the House, Senate (assuming a Democrat landslide) and the AFL-CIO will push for protectionist measures (“we have a mandate”) that will invite retaliation from our trading partners which will push us into the abyss of deep recession (we are not in one yet) or even depression.
6. Obama, The EcoWarrior
Obama and the Democrat leadership are against domestic drilling—his recent hints that he might allow some drilling in certain circumstances are not credible to the American people as the polls show—and the Democrat’s insistence that oil and nuclear options are off the table and that somehow America is going to run on sun and wind make them look foolish and out of touch with the pain of ordinary Americans.
7. Obama, The Appeaser
Most thinking Americans know that Bush’s foreign policy is a disaster, but that doesn’t mean they buy-in to Obama’s pendulum swing the other way. He has claimed he will talk to anyone on any terms. Subsequent retractions of that position are again, not credible—the people know enough about politicians to discern instinct, which is what a politician will ultimately do, from flip flop, which is what they tell you to get your vote.
8. Obama, The Inevitable
The press desperately wants Obama to win for political reasons (because they agree with him) and for professional reasons (he’s more fun to write about) and the endless, mostly obsequious coverage he gets has lead both the mainstream media and the candidate himself to believe that his ascendance to the Presidency is a mere formality.
Obama has never broken through the 50% barrier in polls. Being fanatically popular with liberals is not what the Presidential election is about. It wouldn’t have mattered if 650,000 people had turned up to that rally in Portland, or even 6.5m people. He wins the state with the same number of Electoral College votes.
Obama badly trails the generic Democrat polling numbers and is a long way behind Kerry and Dukakis at this stage of the game…… and the Republicans haven’t even wheeled out the heavy artillery yet. Poll after poll shows that the American people know the media is trying to maneuver this guy into the White House and that is going to produce a horrible backlash against Obama.
9. Obama, The (Race) Card Player
Post-racial candidate, Barrack Obama has been playing the race card. If he chooses to deploy this tactic again between now and the election, the backlash amongst working class, blue collar workers could be so brutal that Obama could face a rout.
Obama has already told working folks they are “bitter”. He recently labeled Republicans as “ignorant”. Telling folks they are bitter, ignorant and racist is hardly going to endear him to at least half the electorate.
10. Obama, The Betrayed!
A Chicago-based liberal friend of mine expressed shock at recent conversations he had been having within his circle, where other young and middle aged urban liberals, natural Obama voters, basically admitted that they’d like to vote for Obama, but don’t think raising taxes (on them?!) would be helpful to the economy at this time.
Is it possible that this represents a new “Bradley Effect”, where folks want to appear to be on the coolest political bandwagon in a generation, but don’t want to sacrifice the economy (and their personal wealth) on the alter of progressive politics? In years to come, will we be talking about the Obama Effect—the overstatement of a progressive candidate’s polling numbers due to supposed liberals saying one thing to pollsters and then voting their pocketbooks?
It is not that we don’t know Obama that is preventing his expected surge in the polls. It is because we know him too well. The voters “get” Obama. Apparently, no one in the media gets that!
1. Obama, The Liberal
Quite simply, he is by instinct, the most left-wing candidate for President since Carter and America is a centre-right nation.
Rahm Emanuel understood to that to pull off the rout of the Republicans in 2006, he would have to field a team of conservative Democrats in the South: ex-Republicans, pro-gun, pro-life, military service, etc. That is why the Democrats came out on top last time. Whatever the rights and wrongs of it, American is not yet ready for a committed liberal from the “Democratic wing of the Democratic Party”.
2. Obama, The Inexperienced
He has zero national security and foreign policy experience in a time when a sure hand is required on both fronts.
He has never run or managed anything: a corporation; a non-profit; an NGO; or, a state. In 12 years as a professor at one of the most prestigious schools in the world (University of Chicago), he didn’t publish a single academic article or book.
He voted “present” 130 times in the Illinois State Senate, has virtually no meaningful legislation to his name and has shown no sign of bi-partisan commitment to getting the job done.
Obama’s resume paints a picture of man who shows up and moves on, but builds nothing, creates nothing, leads nothing and most importantly, leaves nothing of value behind.
3. Obama, The Arrogant
The more we learn about him, the clearer it is that despite his thin resume, he has a pretty high opinion of himself and a pretty low opinion of the rest of us.
4. Obama, The Unpatriotic
It is easy to paint him as unpatriotic through his own actions and those of his friends and associates (lapel pin, hand (not) on heart, Wright, Aires, Michelle!!!) which is an anathema to the American heartland.
5. Obama, The Economy Slayer
His economic policies (though more centrist now) will likely raise prices for all Americans (corporations don’t pay taxes they pass them on to consumers in the form of higher prices) and many Americans are aware of the risk of raising taxes in difficult economic times.
Obama’s friends in the House, Senate (assuming a Democrat landslide) and the AFL-CIO will push for protectionist measures (“we have a mandate”) that will invite retaliation from our trading partners which will push us into the abyss of deep recession (we are not in one yet) or even depression.
6. Obama, The EcoWarrior
Obama and the Democrat leadership are against domestic drilling—his recent hints that he might allow some drilling in certain circumstances are not credible to the American people as the polls show—and the Democrat’s insistence that oil and nuclear options are off the table and that somehow America is going to run on sun and wind make them look foolish and out of touch with the pain of ordinary Americans.
7. Obama, The Appeaser
Most thinking Americans know that Bush’s foreign policy is a disaster, but that doesn’t mean they buy-in to Obama’s pendulum swing the other way. He has claimed he will talk to anyone on any terms. Subsequent retractions of that position are again, not credible—the people know enough about politicians to discern instinct, which is what a politician will ultimately do, from flip flop, which is what they tell you to get your vote.
8. Obama, The Inevitable
The press desperately wants Obama to win for political reasons (because they agree with him) and for professional reasons (he’s more fun to write about) and the endless, mostly obsequious coverage he gets has lead both the mainstream media and the candidate himself to believe that his ascendance to the Presidency is a mere formality.
Obama has never broken through the 50% barrier in polls. Being fanatically popular with liberals is not what the Presidential election is about. It wouldn’t have mattered if 650,000 people had turned up to that rally in Portland, or even 6.5m people. He wins the state with the same number of Electoral College votes.
Obama badly trails the generic Democrat polling numbers and is a long way behind Kerry and Dukakis at this stage of the game…… and the Republicans haven’t even wheeled out the heavy artillery yet. Poll after poll shows that the American people know the media is trying to maneuver this guy into the White House and that is going to produce a horrible backlash against Obama.
9. Obama, The (Race) Card Player
Post-racial candidate, Barrack Obama has been playing the race card. If he chooses to deploy this tactic again between now and the election, the backlash amongst working class, blue collar workers could be so brutal that Obama could face a rout.
Obama has already told working folks they are “bitter”. He recently labeled Republicans as “ignorant”. Telling folks they are bitter, ignorant and racist is hardly going to endear him to at least half the electorate.
10. Obama, The Betrayed!
A Chicago-based liberal friend of mine expressed shock at recent conversations he had been having within his circle, where other young and middle aged urban liberals, natural Obama voters, basically admitted that they’d like to vote for Obama, but don’t think raising taxes (on them?!) would be helpful to the economy at this time.
Is it possible that this represents a new “Bradley Effect”, where folks want to appear to be on the coolest political bandwagon in a generation, but don’t want to sacrifice the economy (and their personal wealth) on the alter of progressive politics? In years to come, will we be talking about the Obama Effect—the overstatement of a progressive candidate’s polling numbers due to supposed liberals saying one thing to pollsters and then voting their pocketbooks?
It is not that we don’t know Obama that is preventing his expected surge in the polls. It is because we know him too well. The voters “get” Obama. Apparently, no one in the media gets that!
The Unbearable Bias and Preening
Those that can do; those that can’t, report—my twist on the George Bernard Shaw maxim—has never been truer (though I say it myself).
Journalists are not generally experts in anything, expect eliciting information. They are taught, like detectives, to ask questions and be skeptical. That is their only contribution to the democratic process, and it is a vital one.
A professional, dogged in pursuit of the truth, armed with the training to find information that was meant to be to hidden, asking questions that no one wants to answer, with the courage to follow through and publish the results, can do more to promote justice in our society than a thousand voters at the ballot box. Without information, without truth, voting is meaningless.
Journalism, as it used to be defined, no longer exists. There are only propagandists. Highly paid individuals who manipulate information to achieve a political, financial or career objective. Men and woman who figuratively speaking, make love to their heroes in interviews, and damn their enemies in one minute Orwellian hate-fests. Watching the news today is as predictable as a daytime soap opera, and no more illuminating.
When a journalist gives up his objectivity, he becomes a campaign aid. A politician’s lackey. What reason is there to watch, listen to or read him? What would we discern that we couldn’t find out by going directly to a politician’s campaign website?
Journalists have always been a vile breed. They have never built anything. They have never led anyone. They have never had to wrestle order from chaos. Teachers, construction workers, managers, social workers, lawyers, even politicians—everyone in society except reporters, has to make difficult things happen every day of their working lives. The (necessary) job of the journalist is stand on the sidelines of history throwing rocks at the rest of us. Picking apart everything we do; critiquing to make things better next time.
But because journalists have no idea how challenging it is to make these difficult things happen on a daily basis, and because they travel the dirty and dangerous back allies of society, they come to believe the rest of us are at best, idiots, and at worst, corrupt, ignorant and dangerous. The Goodyear blimp-size egos of journalists are fed, watered and miraculously grown through the task of constantly being the examiner, never the examined.
Colossal ego, arrogance, frustration, meager public expectations, money—it’s all a heady cocktail that has led reporters to believe that they have the right and the duty to make democracy work better. All animals are equal, but some animals are more equal than others. Journalists with their native wit, intelligence and experience will help us elect the right person. Reporters will open the shutters and let in the light.
Except that it is all a huge waste of time. Does anyone think that an O’Reilly or an Olbermann changes anything? As the conservatives fled to Fox and talk radio, now the liberals gravitate to MSNBC, NPR, CBS, NBC and the Times. This is news as trench warfare—heavy bombardments, millions of casualties, inches of ground gained and lost. Is it a coincidence that we are now (and have been for some considerable time) a 50:50 nation, paralyzed to the point of self destruction?
Can someone start behaving like a journalist? A real journalist? In the past, you were a despicable bunch who provided an invaluable service. Now you are just despicable.
Where is the objectivity? Where is the skepticism? Where is the comparative analysis? Where is the self respect?
Journalists are not generally experts in anything, expect eliciting information. They are taught, like detectives, to ask questions and be skeptical. That is their only contribution to the democratic process, and it is a vital one.
A professional, dogged in pursuit of the truth, armed with the training to find information that was meant to be to hidden, asking questions that no one wants to answer, with the courage to follow through and publish the results, can do more to promote justice in our society than a thousand voters at the ballot box. Without information, without truth, voting is meaningless.
Journalism, as it used to be defined, no longer exists. There are only propagandists. Highly paid individuals who manipulate information to achieve a political, financial or career objective. Men and woman who figuratively speaking, make love to their heroes in interviews, and damn their enemies in one minute Orwellian hate-fests. Watching the news today is as predictable as a daytime soap opera, and no more illuminating.
When a journalist gives up his objectivity, he becomes a campaign aid. A politician’s lackey. What reason is there to watch, listen to or read him? What would we discern that we couldn’t find out by going directly to a politician’s campaign website?
Journalists have always been a vile breed. They have never built anything. They have never led anyone. They have never had to wrestle order from chaos. Teachers, construction workers, managers, social workers, lawyers, even politicians—everyone in society except reporters, has to make difficult things happen every day of their working lives. The (necessary) job of the journalist is stand on the sidelines of history throwing rocks at the rest of us. Picking apart everything we do; critiquing to make things better next time.
But because journalists have no idea how challenging it is to make these difficult things happen on a daily basis, and because they travel the dirty and dangerous back allies of society, they come to believe the rest of us are at best, idiots, and at worst, corrupt, ignorant and dangerous. The Goodyear blimp-size egos of journalists are fed, watered and miraculously grown through the task of constantly being the examiner, never the examined.
Colossal ego, arrogance, frustration, meager public expectations, money—it’s all a heady cocktail that has led reporters to believe that they have the right and the duty to make democracy work better. All animals are equal, but some animals are more equal than others. Journalists with their native wit, intelligence and experience will help us elect the right person. Reporters will open the shutters and let in the light.
Except that it is all a huge waste of time. Does anyone think that an O’Reilly or an Olbermann changes anything? As the conservatives fled to Fox and talk radio, now the liberals gravitate to MSNBC, NPR, CBS, NBC and the Times. This is news as trench warfare—heavy bombardments, millions of casualties, inches of ground gained and lost. Is it a coincidence that we are now (and have been for some considerable time) a 50:50 nation, paralyzed to the point of self destruction?
Can someone start behaving like a journalist? A real journalist? In the past, you were a despicable bunch who provided an invaluable service. Now you are just despicable.
Where is the objectivity? Where is the skepticism? Where is the comparative analysis? Where is the self respect?
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