Many pundits claim Obama will do better in the polls when the electorate gets to know him – they couldn’t be more wrong. There are ten reasons why Obama will lose the election in November, probably in a close race, but not inconceivably, in a rout:
1. Obama, The Liberal
Quite simply, he is by instinct, the most left-wing candidate for President since Carter and America is a centre-right nation.
Rahm Emanuel understood to that to pull off the rout of the Republicans in 2006, he would have to field a team of conservative Democrats in the South: ex-Republicans, pro-gun, pro-life, military service, etc. That is why the Democrats came out on top last time. Whatever the rights and wrongs of it, American is not yet ready for a committed liberal from the “Democratic wing of the Democratic Party”.
2. Obama, The Inexperienced
He has zero national security and foreign policy experience in a time when a sure hand is required on both fronts.
He has never run or managed anything: a corporation; a non-profit; an NGO; or, a state. In 12 years as a professor at one of the most prestigious schools in the world (University of Chicago), he didn’t publish a single academic article or book.
He voted “present” 130 times in the Illinois State Senate, has virtually no meaningful legislation to his name and has shown no sign of bi-partisan commitment to getting the job done.
Obama’s resume paints a picture of man who shows up and moves on, but builds nothing, creates nothing, leads nothing and most importantly, leaves nothing of value behind.
3. Obama, The Arrogant
The more we learn about him, the clearer it is that despite his thin resume, he has a pretty high opinion of himself and a pretty low opinion of the rest of us.
4. Obama, The Unpatriotic
It is easy to paint him as unpatriotic through his own actions and those of his friends and associates (lapel pin, hand (not) on heart, Wright, Aires, Michelle!!!) which is an anathema to the American heartland.
5. Obama, The Economy Slayer
His economic policies (though more centrist now) will likely raise prices for all Americans (corporations don’t pay taxes they pass them on to consumers in the form of higher prices) and many Americans are aware of the risk of raising taxes in difficult economic times.
Obama’s friends in the House, Senate (assuming a Democrat landslide) and the AFL-CIO will push for protectionist measures (“we have a mandate”) that will invite retaliation from our trading partners which will push us into the abyss of deep recession (we are not in one yet) or even depression.
6. Obama, The EcoWarrior
Obama and the Democrat leadership are against domestic drilling—his recent hints that he might allow some drilling in certain circumstances are not credible to the American people as the polls show—and the Democrat’s insistence that oil and nuclear options are off the table and that somehow America is going to run on sun and wind make them look foolish and out of touch with the pain of ordinary Americans.
7. Obama, The Appeaser
Most thinking Americans know that Bush’s foreign policy is a disaster, but that doesn’t mean they buy-in to Obama’s pendulum swing the other way. He has claimed he will talk to anyone on any terms. Subsequent retractions of that position are again, not credible—the people know enough about politicians to discern instinct, which is what a politician will ultimately do, from flip flop, which is what they tell you to get your vote.
8. Obama, The Inevitable
The press desperately wants Obama to win for political reasons (because they agree with him) and for professional reasons (he’s more fun to write about) and the endless, mostly obsequious coverage he gets has lead both the mainstream media and the candidate himself to believe that his ascendance to the Presidency is a mere formality.
Obama has never broken through the 50% barrier in polls. Being fanatically popular with liberals is not what the Presidential election is about. It wouldn’t have mattered if 650,000 people had turned up to that rally in Portland, or even 6.5m people. He wins the state with the same number of Electoral College votes.
Obama badly trails the generic Democrat polling numbers and is a long way behind Kerry and Dukakis at this stage of the game…… and the Republicans haven’t even wheeled out the heavy artillery yet. Poll after poll shows that the American people know the media is trying to maneuver this guy into the White House and that is going to produce a horrible backlash against Obama.
9. Obama, The (Race) Card Player
Post-racial candidate, Barrack Obama has been playing the race card. If he chooses to deploy this tactic again between now and the election, the backlash amongst working class, blue collar workers could be so brutal that Obama could face a rout.
Obama has already told working folks they are “bitter”. He recently labeled Republicans as “ignorant”. Telling folks they are bitter, ignorant and racist is hardly going to endear him to at least half the electorate.
10. Obama, The Betrayed!
A Chicago-based liberal friend of mine expressed shock at recent conversations he had been having within his circle, where other young and middle aged urban liberals, natural Obama voters, basically admitted that they’d like to vote for Obama, but don’t think raising taxes (on them?!) would be helpful to the economy at this time.
Is it possible that this represents a new “Bradley Effect”, where folks want to appear to be on the coolest political bandwagon in a generation, but don’t want to sacrifice the economy (and their personal wealth) on the alter of progressive politics? In years to come, will we be talking about the Obama Effect—the overstatement of a progressive candidate’s polling numbers due to supposed liberals saying one thing to pollsters and then voting their pocketbooks?
It is not that we don’t know Obama that is preventing his expected surge in the polls. It is because we know him too well. The voters “get” Obama. Apparently, no one in the media gets that!
Sunday, August 10, 2008
The Unbearable Bias and Preening
Those that can do; those that can’t, report—my twist on the George Bernard Shaw maxim—has never been truer (though I say it myself).
Journalists are not generally experts in anything, expect eliciting information. They are taught, like detectives, to ask questions and be skeptical. That is their only contribution to the democratic process, and it is a vital one.
A professional, dogged in pursuit of the truth, armed with the training to find information that was meant to be to hidden, asking questions that no one wants to answer, with the courage to follow through and publish the results, can do more to promote justice in our society than a thousand voters at the ballot box. Without information, without truth, voting is meaningless.
Journalism, as it used to be defined, no longer exists. There are only propagandists. Highly paid individuals who manipulate information to achieve a political, financial or career objective. Men and woman who figuratively speaking, make love to their heroes in interviews, and damn their enemies in one minute Orwellian hate-fests. Watching the news today is as predictable as a daytime soap opera, and no more illuminating.
When a journalist gives up his objectivity, he becomes a campaign aid. A politician’s lackey. What reason is there to watch, listen to or read him? What would we discern that we couldn’t find out by going directly to a politician’s campaign website?
Journalists have always been a vile breed. They have never built anything. They have never led anyone. They have never had to wrestle order from chaos. Teachers, construction workers, managers, social workers, lawyers, even politicians—everyone in society except reporters, has to make difficult things happen every day of their working lives. The (necessary) job of the journalist is stand on the sidelines of history throwing rocks at the rest of us. Picking apart everything we do; critiquing to make things better next time.
But because journalists have no idea how challenging it is to make these difficult things happen on a daily basis, and because they travel the dirty and dangerous back allies of society, they come to believe the rest of us are at best, idiots, and at worst, corrupt, ignorant and dangerous. The Goodyear blimp-size egos of journalists are fed, watered and miraculously grown through the task of constantly being the examiner, never the examined.
Colossal ego, arrogance, frustration, meager public expectations, money—it’s all a heady cocktail that has led reporters to believe that they have the right and the duty to make democracy work better. All animals are equal, but some animals are more equal than others. Journalists with their native wit, intelligence and experience will help us elect the right person. Reporters will open the shutters and let in the light.
Except that it is all a huge waste of time. Does anyone think that an O’Reilly or an Olbermann changes anything? As the conservatives fled to Fox and talk radio, now the liberals gravitate to MSNBC, NPR, CBS, NBC and the Times. This is news as trench warfare—heavy bombardments, millions of casualties, inches of ground gained and lost. Is it a coincidence that we are now (and have been for some considerable time) a 50:50 nation, paralyzed to the point of self destruction?
Can someone start behaving like a journalist? A real journalist? In the past, you were a despicable bunch who provided an invaluable service. Now you are just despicable.
Where is the objectivity? Where is the skepticism? Where is the comparative analysis? Where is the self respect?
Journalists are not generally experts in anything, expect eliciting information. They are taught, like detectives, to ask questions and be skeptical. That is their only contribution to the democratic process, and it is a vital one.
A professional, dogged in pursuit of the truth, armed with the training to find information that was meant to be to hidden, asking questions that no one wants to answer, with the courage to follow through and publish the results, can do more to promote justice in our society than a thousand voters at the ballot box. Without information, without truth, voting is meaningless.
Journalism, as it used to be defined, no longer exists. There are only propagandists. Highly paid individuals who manipulate information to achieve a political, financial or career objective. Men and woman who figuratively speaking, make love to their heroes in interviews, and damn their enemies in one minute Orwellian hate-fests. Watching the news today is as predictable as a daytime soap opera, and no more illuminating.
When a journalist gives up his objectivity, he becomes a campaign aid. A politician’s lackey. What reason is there to watch, listen to or read him? What would we discern that we couldn’t find out by going directly to a politician’s campaign website?
Journalists have always been a vile breed. They have never built anything. They have never led anyone. They have never had to wrestle order from chaos. Teachers, construction workers, managers, social workers, lawyers, even politicians—everyone in society except reporters, has to make difficult things happen every day of their working lives. The (necessary) job of the journalist is stand on the sidelines of history throwing rocks at the rest of us. Picking apart everything we do; critiquing to make things better next time.
But because journalists have no idea how challenging it is to make these difficult things happen on a daily basis, and because they travel the dirty and dangerous back allies of society, they come to believe the rest of us are at best, idiots, and at worst, corrupt, ignorant and dangerous. The Goodyear blimp-size egos of journalists are fed, watered and miraculously grown through the task of constantly being the examiner, never the examined.
Colossal ego, arrogance, frustration, meager public expectations, money—it’s all a heady cocktail that has led reporters to believe that they have the right and the duty to make democracy work better. All animals are equal, but some animals are more equal than others. Journalists with their native wit, intelligence and experience will help us elect the right person. Reporters will open the shutters and let in the light.
Except that it is all a huge waste of time. Does anyone think that an O’Reilly or an Olbermann changes anything? As the conservatives fled to Fox and talk radio, now the liberals gravitate to MSNBC, NPR, CBS, NBC and the Times. This is news as trench warfare—heavy bombardments, millions of casualties, inches of ground gained and lost. Is it a coincidence that we are now (and have been for some considerable time) a 50:50 nation, paralyzed to the point of self destruction?
Can someone start behaving like a journalist? A real journalist? In the past, you were a despicable bunch who provided an invaluable service. Now you are just despicable.
Where is the objectivity? Where is the skepticism? Where is the comparative analysis? Where is the self respect?
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